Deadballers: Ducky and High Pockets Present…

Passionately undeveloped opinions on the state of baseball, the shifting landscape of stats and analysis, and the opiate power of El Pato tomato sauce

Keeping tabs on Interleague

Update: I think Ducky is not as enthused about this as I am, and he brings up good points. I’ve always seen pythagorean expectation used for a single team over the course of a season and assumed it would apply for a league as well. That may not be the case. So while I do some digging take all this with a grain of salt. Which you should anyway since 6 games doesn’t not a meaningful sample size make. The run differential trend should be fun regardless though. -High Pockets

Update 2: Also, this expectation equation I’ve used has a factor of 2 involved. Apparently research since the original equation came about has found that a factor of 1.83 is more accurate. It will be used from now on (if pythagorean expectation is continued).

Since Interleague play is constant this year as a result of the Astros moving to the AL, we can follow how each league is doing all year long instead of waiting until June. I’ll be posting a few graphs after every week to get an idea of what’s going on. The first will be run differential, then a graph of AL Wins vs. Expected wins (computed based of simple pythagorean expectation), and finally a graph of NL Wins vs. Expected Wins (the inverse of the AL graph).

chart_1 (2)

Fairly close after a week, thanks to four 1-run games, a 2-run game, and a lone blowout of Philly by KC. The Reds and Angels seemed to be evenly matched, but the 9 run win by the Royals threw the run differential immediately into the AL’s favorite.

chart_2

The AL has already been unlucky to the tune of nearly a game. Again, thank the Royals beatdown of Philadelphia on Friday.

chart_3

Since the AL has been unlucky, the NL must’ve been lucky to win its 3 games. Math is fun like that.

So there you have it. After one week the AL is clearly superior to the NL /incorrect assertion/. See you all next week!

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2 responses to “Keeping tabs on Interleague

  1. Rick R April 7, 2013 at 6:44 pm

    “its” not “it’s”

    >________________________________ > From: Deadballers: Ducky and High Pockets Present… >To: frrdcaa@yahoo.com >Sent: Sunday, April 7, 2013 4:34 PM >Subject: [New post] Keeping tabs on Interleague > > WordPress.com >High Pockets posted: “Since Interleague play is constant this year as a result of the Astros moving to the AL, we can follow how each league is doing all year long instead of waiting until June. I’ll be posting a few graphs after every week to get an idea of what’s going on. T” >

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