Keeping tabs on Interleague
April 7, 2013
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Update: I think Ducky is not as enthused about this as I am, and he brings up good points. I’ve always seen pythagorean expectation used for a single team over the course of a season and assumed it would apply for a league as well. That may not be the case. So while I do some digging take all this with a grain of salt. Which you should anyway since 6 games doesn’t not a meaningful sample size make. The run differential trend should be fun regardless though. -High Pockets
Update 2: Also, this expectation equation I’ve used has a factor of 2 involved. Apparently research since the original equation came about has found that a factor of 1.83 is more accurate. It will be used from now on (if pythagorean expectation is continued).
Since Interleague play is constant this year as a result of the Astros moving to the AL, we can follow how each league is doing all year long instead of waiting until June. I’ll be posting a few graphs after every week to get an idea of what’s going on. The first will be run differential, then a graph of AL Wins vs. Expected wins (computed based of simple pythagorean expectation), and finally a graph of NL Wins vs. Expected Wins (the inverse of the AL graph).
Fairly close after a week, thanks to four 1-run games, a 2-run game, and a lone blowout of Philly by KC. The Reds and Angels seemed to be evenly matched, but the 9 run win by the Royals threw the run differential immediately into the AL’s favorite.
The AL has already been unlucky to the tune of nearly a game. Again, thank the Royals beatdown of Philadelphia on Friday.
Since the AL has been unlucky, the NL must’ve been lucky to win its 3 games. Math is fun like that.
So there you have it. After one week the AL is clearly superior to the NL /incorrect assertion/. See you all next week!